Simpson's Paradox

That solitary win came at Killarney on 30 September 2023, now 33 months ago and counting. Killarney is a tight, picturesque track in Kerry where horses that handle a technical layout tend to thrive, and Simpson's Paradox clearly found something to its liking there. Whether that win was a glimpse of a better horse or simply the right race on the right day is a question the record since hasn't really answered. Six races without a win since then, and recent form figures of 3-8-20-7 suggest the spark has been difficult to rediscover.

The strongest case for the horse is at a distance of one mile one furlong to one mile two furlongs, where that single win sits among 11 races — so 1 from 11, or 9% — which is actually better than its overall record would suggest. It is the kind of distance profile that says the horse has a preferred trip even if results have been modest.

Shane Foley, one of the more respected jockeys in Irish racing, has partnered Simpson's Paradox eight times without getting a winner, which is not necessarily a damning stat but does reinforce that the horse's issues are not down to a shortage of quality in the saddle. Trainer John Andrew Kinsella, working out of Rathdrum in County Wicklow, has sent out five winners this season, so the yard is functioning — this particular horse just hasn't added to the tally. With Simpson's Paradox having raced as recently as yesterday, the search for a second career win is very much ongoing. Whether it comes is another matter entirely.