Silca Bay
Silca Bay is a 4-year-old with modest but genuine winning form, and the kind of horse that tends to thrive when conditions align. The track record tells the story: 5 wins from 23 races is a respectable 22% win rate, but look deeper and you find a horse that performs significantly better under specific circumstances. On slow, wet ground, Silca Bay wins roughly 1 in every 3 races—three wins from nine attempts. That is meaningful. It means when the track turns heavy or muddy, the yard are watching closely, because this horse has a genuine edge. The horse also shows a strong affinity for Kempton Park, winning 3 of its 9 races there, which suggests the track's layout or surface suits its running style. That kind of course form is valuable to remember.Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
Recent form has been mixed but not discouraging. In the last six races, Silca Bay has finished 5th, 7th, 5th, 1st, 4th, and 1st—two wins in that stretch over the past two months. The jump from mid-field finishes to a win at Newmarket on 18 July shows the horse is still competitive at the level it races. Eve Johnson Houghton's yard at Blewbury has been productive this season with 42 winners sent out, a solid operation, and jockey Charles Bishop has ridden Silca Bay seven times, winning twice—a 29% win rate that suggests they work well together.
The ceiling for Silca Bay appears to be Class 5 racing, where it has won 2 of 11 races. That is not the level of a horse destined for pattern races or major prizes, but it is honest form. The real window of opportunity comes when the ground is soft and muddy and Kempton Park is offering a race in the right class. That is when Silca Bay becomes a threat. The horse raced just a day ago and remains active, so the yard clearly believe there is more to come.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on standard_to_slow ground: 3 wins from 9 starts (33%)
✔ Course specialist at Kempton Park: 3 wins from 9 starts (33%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Loves
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Ok
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good (a little give)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Likes
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
25 Sep
5th
Newmarket
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 10 runners
30 Aug
7th
Goodwood
1m1f – 1m2f · Soft · 11 runners
5 Aug
5th
Brighton
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
18 Jul
🏆 Won
Newmarket
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 7 runners
3 Jul
4th
Sandown Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 11 runners
5 Jun
🏆 Won
Goodwood
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Soft · 9 runners
23 May
4th
Salisbury
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 12 runners
6 May
14th
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 14 runners
6 Apr
4th
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard_To_Slow · 10 runners
17 Dec
4th
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard_To_Slow · 12 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
Oliver Carmichael Current jockey
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Kempton Park Galloping |
9 |
3 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds, 3 other |
6 May |
33.3% |
| Goodwood Undulating |
2 |
1 win, 1 other |
30 Aug |
50% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
2 |
1 win, 1 other |
25 Sep |
50% |
| Salisbury Undulating |
2 |
2 other |
23 May |
0% |
| Nottingham Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
18 Jul |
0% |
| Sandown Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
3 Jul |
0% |
| Brighton Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
5 Aug |
0% |
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
5 Oct |
0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
21 Nov |
0% |
| Chepstow Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
26 Jul |
0% |
| Lingfield Park Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
2 Jul |
0% |
| Windsor Sharp |
1 |
1 second |
12 Aug |
0% |