Shadow Paddy

What sets Shadow Paddy apart is a clear love affair with softer ground. He has won five of seven races on slightly soft or wet conditions, a win rate of 71 per cent, which tells you exactly what this horse needs to show his best form. He also has a course specialist's edge at Limerick, where he has won three of his four races — a track record that suggests the runner-up finishes elsewhere are less about ability and more about suitability. His last win came at Galway just two months ago, keeping the momentum rolling into what looks a strong autumn campaign.

Eoin Christopher McCarthy's yard at Athea has built a solid season with fifteen winners, and Shadow Paddy is clearly one of the engine room horses doing the work. Jockey G B Noonan has ridden him to four victories from ten races together, a 40 per cent win rate that shows this is a working partnership rather than a lucky streak. The combination of a talented trainer, a pilot who knows the horse, favourable ground conditions, and a horse that dominates at certain tracks makes Shadow Paddy worth watching. When the weather turns wet and he heads to a course that suits him, expect him to win.