Sarafina Mshairi

The yard of Edward Smyth-Osbourne at Upper Lambourn has an eight-winner season on the board, so the trainer is not without form. More telling is Sarafina Mshairi's preference for normal ground — the horse has managed both its wins on standard conditions, winning at roughly 1 in 6 races when the going is straightforward. On faster, drier ground the record deteriorates sharply. Class 5 racing, where the horse typically competes, is roughly where it belongs: 1 win from 9 races there. The takeaway is simple. Sarafina Mshairi is a horse that works best on a normal track surface, in modest company, and it was winning as recently as a year ago. Whether the absence of a win in the past twelve months means the horse is past its best, or simply having a lean spell in an unforgiving game, is the question that will be answered over the next few weeks. The horse is still racing, and still getting into the frame often enough to suggest a return to the winner's circle is not impossible.