Roman Secret

The horse has two clear preferences that define her chances. She wins on normal ground at a rate of 3 wins from 10 races (30 percent)—nearly three times better than her overall record—which makes her a genuinely different proposition depending on the weather. Over the distances she handles best, 1 mile 1 furlong to 1 mile 2 furlongs, she has won 2 of 7 races (29 percent), another sharp improvement on her flat 10 percent. Wolverhampton has become her spiritual home: 2 wins from 6 races there shows a real affinity with the track. Her most recent victory came at Lingfield Park on 11 August, two months back, which suggests her form has dipped slightly since then—her last six races show only one top-three finish, a third place, with a recent seventh suggesting she may be running out of luck.

The detail worth noting is that Alec Voikhansky, his most regular partner, has yet to taste victory with him. In eight rides together, the jockey and horse have managed nothing better than a place, which implies either a mismatch of styles or simply the small-sample-size reality of lower-level racing. Roman Secret remains active and still competitive on her day, but right now looks like a horse waiting for normal ground and a return to Wolverhampton to remind the yard what she is capable of.