Ritaal

The recent form tells a story worth unpicking. The last four runs read 3-10-2-2 — two second-place finishes, a third, and one day where things clearly went wrong. That middle result of tenth stands out against the otherwise consistent placed efforts, and suggests conditions or circumstances on that occasion didn't suit. Strip it out and you have a horse that has finished in the top three in three of its four races, which is a decent return even without a winner's prize.

All of Ritaal's racing so far has come at Class 5 level — the entry-level tier of British flat racing — and the horse has yet to win at that grade in three attempts. That's not necessarily a ceiling; plenty of horses take time to break through, and three races is a small sample. The team of William Muir and Chris Grassick have had 21 winners on the board this season, which shows they know how to get a horse ready to win. A 74-day break since the last run means Ritaal comes back fresh, and trainers of that calibre tend to have a plan when they freshen a horse up mid-season. Whether that plan involves dropping into easier company, switching tactics, or simply waiting for the right conditions remains to be seen — but the placed form suggests Ritaal is capable enough. The question is whether a win is just around the corner or whether this is a horse that makes a habit of getting very close without ever quite getting there.