Riaan

The clearest thing in his favour is what happens when the ground gets wet. On soft or slightly soft ground — a bit of moisture underfoot, conditions that suit a horse who travels through mud rather than rattling over hard turf — Riaan has won 2 of just 4 races, a 50% win rate that is genuinely eye-catching. Plenty of horses will run on anything; far fewer are transformed by specific conditions. That selectivity is something a good trainer knows how to exploit.

Elliott has clearly kept a particular eye on this one. Speaking on a stable tour last October, he described Riaan as a horse he has "always had a soft spot for" and suggested there could be a nice prize at one of the spring festivals with the right race setup. That kind of affection from a trainer who handles hundreds of horses at once means something. It is not sentiment — it is recognition that this horse has untapped potential if placed carefully.

The Sligo win last October, his most recent, showed exactly what that looks like in practice. A small field, a steady early pace, and Riaan travelling well enough that jockey Danny Gilligan — who rides him regularly, though they have only won together once from nine attempts — reported he "probably wasn't doing a whole pile in front" at the finish. In other words, he had more to give. That is a tantalising detail.

Where Riaan has come unstuck is at the very top level. In three races at Class 1 — the highest tier of competition in Britain and Ireland — he has yet to win. That gap between festival aspirations and current ability is real, but Elliott knows the difference between a horse that belongs at the top table right now and one that could earn his seat there with the right preparation. Recent form of a win, a fourth, and a second from his last three completed runs suggests the nine-year-old is heading in the right direction.