Red Spells Danger

The two wins have come close together and in good style. The first arrived at Ripon in May, and a second followed quickly at Hamilton Park — both on normal ground and both over the sharp, sprint distances of five to six-and-a-half furlongs. At those distances on a good surface, Red Spells Danger has won 2 of just 4 races, a 50% record that stands out immediately. Short, fast, and on decent ground is clearly where this horse wants to be. Stretch the trip or soften the surface and the picture looks different.

Jockey David Allan has been the regular partner, riding the horse in 7 of its 11 races and picking up both wins. That works out at winning roughly 1 in every 3 rides together — 29% — which is a meaningful partnership rather than a coincidence. When a jockey keeps getting the call and keeps delivering results, it usually means there's a level of understanding built up between horse and rider that the yard values.

The trickier part of the story is at the top level. Red Spells Danger has been pitched into three Class 2 races — among the best races in Britain outside of the elite Group contests — and has yet to win any of them. That's 0 from 3 at that level, and while the horse has clearly been placed and competitive, converting form into a win against that quality of opposition remains the next challenge. Tim Easterby's yard at Great Habton has sent out 128 winners this season alone, so this horse is operating in a busy and confident stable that knows how to place a horse to best effect.

With a race just yesterday and recent form reading 4-2-1-1-2-2, Red Spells Danger is as fit and active as it has ever been. The form is trending upward, the ground and trip preferences are well understood, and the only question is whether it can find a way to get its head in front at the next level up.