Rebel Cowgirl

The record reads one win and three places from 15 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 14, and that tells you this isn't a horse who wins easily. What it also tells you is that she keeps showing up and competing — those three placed finishes are evidence of a horse who gets involved rather than fading into the background. Her recent form is the most encouraging part of the picture: her last six runs read 1-5-3-4-10, and that win and a third in her last three completed races suggest something has clicked in the past few months.

Jockey Cian Quirke knows her well, having ridden her in five of those 15 races for the one win — a record of 1 from 5 together, meaning they've clicked roughly 1 in every 5 times as a partnership. That's a notably better return than her overall career average, and it's the kind of statistic that suggests they bring something out in each other. Trainer M A Cahill has sent out just one winner this season, and that winner was Rebel Cowgirl herself — so she isn't just part of a yard in good form, she is the yard's form.

She last raced 39 days ago and is returning from a short break, which tends to mean the yard are looking for something specific rather than just filling a race. After 15 races and a career that has tested everyone's patience, Rebel Cowgirl is at least heading into whatever comes next as a winner — and that changes things more than the bare statistics suggest.