Rambuso Creek

Trained by Michael Herrington at Willoughton in Lincolnshire, Rambuso Creek has been ridden most often by Tom Eaves, though their partnership has delivered just one win from 15 races together. The horse competes mainly in Class 5 races — the lower rungs of British racing — where it has won once from 14 starts. What matters more is how it has been running recently. In its last six outings, Rambuso Creek has won twice, finished fourth once, and filled the frame three other times. That is solid form for a horse at this level, and suggests it is performing consistently better than its career win rate might suggest.

Ground conditions clearly matter. On slightly soft or muddy ground, the horse has won 2 of 7 races — a win rate of nearly 30 percent — which is almost three times its overall average. At Nottingham on fast, dry ground it has still managed two wins from three races, but the data hints that softer conditions bring out the best in it. Rambuso Creek remains active and recently raced, so it is one to watch if you know it is heading back to Nottingham, especially if there has been recent rain.