Provision
Provision is a 4-year-old that has taken its time to find the winner's enclosure, but when it did—back in July at Worcester—there was a clear pattern to unlock. The horse has raced 11 times for one win and seven places, a return that speaks to consistent effort without quite breaking through. What makes that single victory worth noting, though, is where it came: Provision won over the long distance of 2 miles or more, and that is where its true form lives. Over distances of 2 miles and beyond, the horse has won one of its five races—a 20 per cent win rate that stands out sharply against its overall 9 per cent record. At shorter distances, Provision has managed only places from six attempts, which suggests
Barry Brennan's yard has found the key to getting the most from this horse.
Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
The recent form has been frustrating. Provision has finished third, first, and third again across its last six runs, with that winning run three months ago at Worcester now looking like a high-water mark. A run of three consecutive third-place finishes bracketing that victory tells a story of a horse finding the job hard against stronger fields or at distances that don't suit. The fact that Provision has raced at Class 5—the lower levels—without winning (0 from 3) while taking that victory at Worcester suggests the track itself may matter more than the class of the race. Brennan's operation at Upper Lambourn has sent out six winners this season, so there is form in the yard, even if Provision remains a modest operator. Still active after racing just a day ago, this is a horse the trainer clearly believes has more to offer, even if the wins remain sparse.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 5 starts (20%)
✔ Well suited by Long Distance (2m+) distances: 20% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
Long Distance (2M+)
Loves
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
10 Oct
DNF
Chepstow
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 13 runners
8 Sep
3rd
Bangor-on-Dee
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
22 Jul
🏆 Won
Worcester
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 10 runners
17 Jun
3rd
Worcester
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 9 runners
11 May
3rd
Southwell
1m6f – 2m · Good · 7 runners
15 Apr
3rd
Southwell
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 8 runners
25 Mar
8th
Lingfield Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 8 runners
27 Dec
5th
Kempton Park
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 9 runners
14 Oct
3rd
Newcastle
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 8 runners
25 Sep
3rd
Newcastle
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 5 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
Isabelle Ryder Current jockey
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Worcester Galloping |
2 |
1 win, 1 third |
22 Jul |
50% |
| Southwell Galloping |
2 |
2 thirds |
11 May |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
2 |
2 thirds |
14 Oct |
0% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
27 Dec |
0% |
| Bangor-on-Dee Sharp |
1 |
1 third |
8 Sep |
0% |
| Lingfield Park Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
25 Mar |
0% |
| Chepstow Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
10 Oct |
0% |
| Carlisle Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
9 Sep |
0% |