Prodigal Son
Prodigal Son is finding his feet at exactly the right moment. The 4-year-old won at Newmarket just this week, his second victory in six races, and he is clearly entering a period of form. Trained by
Heather Main at Kingston Lisle in Oxfordshire, he has now picked up two wins from his last six outings — a stark contrast to his overall record of 2 wins from 13 races. That might sound modest on the face of it, but what matters is the direction of travel. He has clearly learned something on the track, and the wins are coming closer together.
Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
The key to understanding Prodigal Son is distance. Over 1 mile 1 furlong to 1 mile 2 furlongs, he is a completely different proposition. He has won 2 of his 6 races at this trip — a 33 percent win rate that towers above his career average of 15 percent. This is the distance where he belongs. Beyond those parameters, or shorter, he struggles to find the same gear. His recent Newmarket success came at 1 mile 1 furlong, right in his sweet spot.
What is harder to pin down is his ceiling. He has never won a top-level race, and in five attempts at Class 5, his highest level of competition, he has failed to find the winner's enclosure. This suggests he may have reached his mark, and the modest purses of lower classes are likely where his wins will continue to come. But for a 4-year-old only now hitting a productive streak, there is time yet. Heather Main's yard is in good form this season with 17 winners already, and Prodigal Son looks set to add to that tally.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 4 starts (25%)
✔ Well suited by 1m1f – 1m2f distances: 33% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
19 Sep
🏆 Won
Newmarket
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
21 Aug
2nd
Salisbury
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 8 runners
23 Jul
9th
Sandown Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 12 runners
31 May
7th
Nottingham
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 7 runners
12 May
3rd
Bath
1m3f – 1m4f · Firm · 5 runners
29 Apr
🏆 Won
Bath
1m1f – 1m2f · Firm · 6 runners
10 Dec
8th
Kempton Park
5f – 6½f · Standard_To_Slow · 9 runners
29 Nov
5th
Wolverhampton
7f – 1m · Standard · 8 runners
4 Nov
9th
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 10 runners
1 Aug
10th
Newmarket
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 12 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
3 |
3 other |
29 Nov |
0% |
| Bath Undulating |
2 |
1 win, 1 third |
12 May |
50% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
2 |
1 win, 1 other |
19 Sep |
50% |
| Salisbury Undulating |
2 |
1 second, 1 other |
21 Aug |
0% |
| Sandown Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
23 Jul |
0% |
| Newbury Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
16 May |
0% |
| Nottingham Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
31 May |
0% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
10 Dec |
0% |