Paddy The Squire

The real progress shows in how the horse has been run this season. Paddy The Squire won at Chester in the spring, his ears pricked, just weeks after being gelded at the end of the previous season. That surgery appears to have made a genuine difference: trainer Iain Jardine says the horse is more focused on the track, able to concentrate properly instead of being distracted. From there, the plan has been to gradually step him up in distance, and that strategy paid off with a Class 2 win at Hamilton Park last August — his biggest prize so far. He also ran well in the Old Borough Cup, a historic race, showing he belongs in better company than his overall win rate might suggest.

The numbers do reveal his preferred conditions. On fast, dry ground he wins roughly 1 in every 3 races (2 wins from 7), and over distances between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, the same ratio holds — he has won 2 of those 7 races. Class 2 racing has been tougher; he has managed just one win from seven attempts at that level. Andrew Mullen, his regular jockey, has done particularly well by him, winning 4 of their 17 races together — a 24% win rate that suggests they work well as a team.

The concern is the drought. Paddy The Squire has not won in his last six races, and it has been 14 months since his Hamilton victory. At his best he is a solid, honest horse that can win decent races, but he needs the ground to be right and the distance to suit. He is not yet broken at the top level, and that may always be his ceiling — but on the evidence of this year, he still has something to offer.