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One Night Thunder

Over 25 races, the horse has won just three times — a modest 12 per cent win rate — yet those victories have come in a deliberate pattern. Drop him into Class 5 company and he transforms: three wins from seven races there, a 43 per cent win rate that stands out sharply against his overall record. It suggests that One Night Thunder belongs in a particular kind of race, and when placed there, he fights.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Chestnut
Father
Night Of Thunder
Mother
Elis Eliz
Owner
Grange Park Racing Xix
Official rating
70

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
27
Career races
4
Wins
14.8%
Win rate
avg ~10%
37.0%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
10 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The real story is Carlisle. On soft, testing ground at that course, One Night Thunder has won twice from just three races, most recently in September 2025. That is a course specialist's record, and it hints at a horse that needs help from conditions and circumstance to show his best. His trainer, Gemma Tutty, based in North Yorkshire, knows this intimately. He has explained that he won twice at Carlisle last September, then scoped wrong — picked up an issue internally — after his comeback run at Thirsk, which stalled any momentum he might have built. Since then, he has not won in his last six races, though he keeps placing and scratching along at lower levels.

The pattern that emerges is of a horse that needs the ground to have some juice in it, as Tutty puts it — wet or muddy conditions suit him far more than fast, dry turf. He also prefers middle distances, winning three times from fourteen races at seven furlongs to a mile. Jockey Kaiya Fraser, who has ridden him five times, has one win aboard him, an encouraging 20 per cent return over a small sample. With the trainer eyeing a return to Haydock if rain arrives, One Night Thunder remains active and still capable of finding the winner's enclosure in the right circumstances. He just needs them to align.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 4 starts (25%)
✔ Excellent record on heavy ground: 1 wins from 3 starts (33%)
✔ Well suited by 7f – 1m distances: 25% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 1 wins from 16 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Heavy (very wet)
Loves
Good (a little give)
Ok
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
7F – 1M
Loves
5F – 6½F
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Unknown
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 3 (mid-level)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Loves
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, hilly
Loves
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
8 Oct
6th
Ayr
7f – 1m · Heavy · 10 runners
29 Sep
🏆 Won
Ayr
7f – 1m · Heavy · 10 runners
9 Sep
3rd
Carlisle
7f – 1m · Good · 11 runners
29 Aug
5th
Beverley
7f – 1m · Soft · 13 runners
7 Aug
6th
Musselburgh
7f – 1m · Good · 11 runners
25 Jul
7th
Newcastle
1m1f – 1m2f · 14 runners
11 Jun
8th
Nottingham
1m1f – 1m2f · Soft · 9 runners
9 May
3rd
Haydock Park
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
18 Apr
10th
Thirsk
7f – 1m · Good · 13 runners
30 Oct
9th
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 11 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
20%
Win rate
1/5
Wins / rides
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Laura Coughlan
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Carlisle
Undulating
3 2 wins, 1 third 9 Sep 66.7%
Ayr
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 8 Oct 33.3%
Doncaster
Galloping
3 3 other 24 Jul 0%
Newcastle
Galloping
3 3 other 25 Jul 0%
Beverley
Undulating
2 1 second, 1 other 29 Aug 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 11 Jun 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
2 2 thirds 9 May 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
1 1 win 1 Mar 100%
Thirsk
Galloping
1 1 other 18 Apr 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 4 Nov 0%
York
Galloping
1 1 other 16 May 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 other 7 Aug 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
1 1 other 9 Jun 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 other 19 Jun 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 third 5 May 0%
Southwell
Galloping
1 1 other 30 Oct 0%