Northern Empire

That single win came at Lingfield Park back in January, in a Class 2 race — one of the better races in Britain — which is a meaningful achievement for a young horse still finding its feet. At distances between seven furlongs and a mile, Northern Empire has won 1 from 4 races, a 25% win rate, which is a strong return at that level. The problem is that the team has not always kept him at those distances, and it has shown.

Ed Walker, who trains Northern Empire from his yard at Upper Lambourn, has been candid about one particular misstep. Running the horse over six furlongs at Newcastle, against a sharper class of sprinter, left him outpaced from a long way out — completely the wrong race for a horse who clearly needs more time and distance to get into his stride. Walker has since said he intends to step him back up to seven furlongs or a mile, which is exactly what the form suggests. The yard has been in fine shape this season with 76 winners, so there is plenty of confidence behind the horse.

The recent run of results — finishing fifth, then twelfth, eighth, and fourteenth before that January win and a second place before it — looks messy, but context matters. Several of those poorer efforts came in races that simply did not suit him. A horse that can win a top-level race at Lingfield at three years old is not suddenly a bad horse; he is a horse that needs the right conditions. With a trainer willing to hold his hand up and change the plan, Northern Empire's best days may still be ahead of him.