UK time :

Northern Bea

There is something quietly stubborn about a three-year-old who keeps turning up. Northern Bea has raced 39 times and won 4 of them — a win rate of roughly 1 in every 10 races — which on paper sounds modest, but that number hides a story that is almost entirely about one place.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
3 years old
Sex
Filly
Colour
Bay
Father
Oasis Dream
Mother
Queen Consort
Trainer
Owner
Matthew Webber

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
39
Career races
4
Wins
10.3%
Win rate
avg ~10%
33.3%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
140 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

Happy Valley is where Northern Bea lives. All four career wins have come at that track, and across 23 races there the horse has won 4 times and placed on several more occasions. That is a level of course loyalty that is almost eerie — as if the layout, the atmosphere, or something in the air simply suits this horse in a way no other venue can replicate. For context, 4 wins from 23 races at a single track, while going nowhere at the other 16 races elsewhere, tells you that Happy Valley is not just a preference — it is practically a requirement.

The most recent win came at Happy Valley on 5 February 2025, which is now about 16 months ago. Since then, Northern Bea has gone 6 races without a win, and the recent form figures — finishing 11th, 12th, and 3rd in the runs where placings are recorded — suggest a horse that is competitive enough to feature but not quite finding top gear. The 3rd place is encouraging; it shows the ability is still there. Whether another win is coming is harder to say.

Tom Ward trains Northern Bea from Upper Lambourn in Berkshire, a yard that has sent out 14 winners this season, so this is not a struggling operation. Ward clearly knows how to get horses fit and ready. Hugh Bowman rides Northern Bea most often — they have raced together 9 times and won once, which is roughly 1 win in every 9 rides together. That is a workmanlike partnership rather than a magical one, though the single win they share does appear in the Happy Valley column.

Northern Bea raced just one day ago and is very much an active runner. The question for anyone following this horse is simple: when does the yard point it back toward Happy Valley? Because that is the one course where Northern Bea has repeatedly proved it can win, and everything else in this career record is really just filling in time between visits.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Course specialist at happy_valley: 4 wins from 23 starts (17%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at sha_tin in 15 attempts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M1F – 1M2F
5F – 6½F
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Unknown
7F – 1M
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Long straights
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
4 Jun
12th
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 13 runners
4 Mar
11th
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
25 Feb
DNF
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
11 Feb
3rd
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 13 runners
26 Nov
DNF
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
19 Nov
DNF
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
15 Oct
4th
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 14 runners
1 Oct
11th
sha_tin
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 16 runners
10 Sep
5th
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 12 runners
16 Jul
2nd
happy_valley
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 14 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
11.1%
Win rate
1/9
Wins / rides
Zac Purton
25%
Win rate
2/8
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/5
Wins / rides
Brenton Avdulla
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
James Orman
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
Britney Wong
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Alexis Badel
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Antoine Hamelin
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
happy_valley 23 4 wins, 2 seconds, 6 thirds, 11 other 4 Mar 17.4%
sha_tin 15 1 third, 14 other 1 Oct 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 other 4 Jun 0%