Nelson Gate

What makes Nelson Gate genuinely worth watching is the trajectory Gary and Josh Moore believe he's on. The Moore yard, based in Lower Beeding in West Sussex, has sent out 99 winners this season alone — this is a seriously productive operation, and when a trainer from a yard like that says a horse "will win" rather than "might win", it carries some weight. Their view is that Nelson Gate is still physically developing, that he'll come into his own as the winter progresses, and that the move into hurdle racing suits him better than his previous Flat career suggested. In other words, the form you're looking at isn't the finished article.

Caoilin Quinn has been in the saddle for five of Nelson Gate's races and is yet to ride him to a win, but she keeps getting the booking — which is its own kind of vote of confidence. When a jockey keeps being put back on a horse that hasn't won, it usually means the trainer sees something in the combination that the results page doesn't yet reflect.

At four years old, Nelson Gate is young and still finding his feet. He's been competing mainly in Class 4 races — the kind of mid-tier contests where you're expected to be learning your trade — and he hasn't cracked one yet, but he's been close enough often enough that a breakthrough doesn't look far away. He raced just yesterday, so he's fit and active. If the Moore yard's instincts are right and the winter ground suits him, the next few months could be when Nelson Gate finally turns those places into a win.