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Navassa Island

Navassa Island is a five-year-old who has spent two years working out exactly what kind of horse it is — and the answer, it turns out, is one that saves its best for the right moment. Two wins from 20 races is a modest headline figure, winning roughly 1 in every 10 races overall, but the story behind those numbers is more interesting than it first appears.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
5 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
Territories
Mother
Roger Sez
Owner
J C Fleming
Official rating
98

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
20
Career races
2
Wins
10%
Win rate
avg ~10%
40%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
203 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The first win came at The Curragh in August 2023, which is significant in itself — The Curragh is Ireland's most prestigious flat racing venue, the place where champions are made and reputations established. That a horse picks up its first career victory there rather than at a smaller track suggests it had genuine ability from early on. The second win arrived this week at Cork, meaning Navassa Island goes into its next race on the back of a fresh victory and in the kind of form that makes it worth watching closely.

The recent run of results tells a mixed story. Reading the last six races from most recent backwards — a win, then a near-miss in second, then two poor efforts in tenth and ninth, then fourth — you can see a horse that goes missing for spells before suddenly producing the goods. That inconsistency is the puzzle, but the comeback win at Cork suggests something has clicked. Trainer M D O'Callaghan, based at The Curragh in Co. Kildare, has sent out 21 winners already this season, so this is a yard in strong form and clearly capable of placing a horse to best effect.

The one area where Navassa Island has yet to deliver is at the very top level. In five races at Class 1 standard — the best races in the country — the record reads zero wins from five attempts, a blank sheet. That is not unusual for a horse at this level of the sport; Class 1 fields are brutally competitive, and simply being good enough to run in them is its own kind of credential. But it does suggest Navassa Island is a horse that wins when the conditions suit, rather than one that rises to the biggest occasions. Whether this week's victory changes that trajectory is the interesting question.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Naas in 5 attempts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 10 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
Good to yielding (mild give)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Unknown
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
4 Apr
🏆 Won
Cork
5f – 6½f · Soft · 11 runners
8 Nov
11th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 13 runners
4 Oct
2nd
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Soft_To_Heavy · 18 runners
31 Aug
10th
Tipperary
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 15 runners
24 Aug
9th
Naas
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
23 Jul
4th
Naas
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 12 runners
29 Jun
10th
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
13 Jun
5th
Cork
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Yielding · 9 runners
5 Oct
3rd
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Good · 9 runners
25 Aug
4th
Naas
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Yielding · 12 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
Colin Keane Current jockey
25%
Win rate
1/4
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/4
Wins / rides
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Naas
Galloping
5 1 second, 4 other 24 Aug 0%
The Curragh
Galloping
4 1 win, 1 second, 1 third, 1 other 4 Oct 25%
Cork
Galloping
3 1 win, 1 third, 1 other 4 Apr 33.3%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 third 3 Nov 0%
Ascot
Galloping
1 1 other 23 Jun 0%
Tipperary
Galloping
1 1 other 31 Aug 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 other 8 Nov 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 26 Jun 0%
Ayr
Galloping
1 1 third 23 Sep 0%
Leopardstown
Galloping
1 1 other 13 Jul 0%
Navan
Galloping
1 1 other 27 Apr 0%