Native Honey

Across 19 races in total, Native Honey has won 3 times and placed in 5 others — a win rate of around 16%, or roughly 1 in every 6 races. That is a decent but unspectacular number on its own. What makes it interesting is how concentrated those wins are. Strip out Ayr, and you're looking at a horse that has won once from 15 races elsewhere. Trainer Jim Goldie, whose yard at Uplawmoor in Lanarkshire has sent out 88 winners this season, acknowledged earlier in the year that there was still plenty to learn about the horse — noting that Native Honey hadn't handled Musselburgh well, and had cost itself a better result at Doncaster by ducking right at a crucial moment. Those aren't excuses so much as clues: this is a horse with specific preferences and a tendency to make life harder for itself away from its comfort zone.

The distance range of 7 furlongs to a mile seems to suit it well — 3 wins from 9 races at those distances works out at 33%, or 1 in every 3, which is a genuinely impressive number at any level. Recent form has been patchy, with two wins in the last 6 races sandwiched around some poor efforts, but the most recent of those wins came just this week at Ayr. Native Honey raced yesterday and won, which means whatever comes next, it heads there in form.

One footnote worth knowing: regular partner Amie Waugh has yet to win together with Native Honey in 6 attempts, which is a curious subplot given how well the horse has performed overall. Whether that changes is one of the small questions hovering around what is, at its best, a horse that knows exactly where home is.