Must Believe

The real story here is what Must Believe does well. On wet or muddy ground, it transforms into a different proposition entirely, winning 2 of its 5 races on slow conditions — a 40% win rate that stands out sharply against its overall figures. Give it firm ground and it struggles badly. Over the mile-and-three to mile-and-four distances, it wins roughly 3 races in every 10 attempts, which again is significantly above its baseline. Most tellingly, Kempton Park is its happy place. The horse has won 2 of 7 races there, most recently in May 2026, five months back. This is a horse with genuine preferences and a track it understands.

At Class 5 level — the lower tier of competitive racing — Must Believe has managed just 2 wins from 16 attempts, suggesting it finds this standard genuinely tough. Recent form shows a second-place finish three runs ago, a first just before that, then an eighth, which hints at inconsistency. But Baker's yard is functioning well this season with 14 winners sent out, and there is enough evidence here to suggest that if Must Believe gets the ground it wants, returns to Kempton, and stays over the right distance, it has every chance of adding to its tally. This is a horse that works best when all three factors line up.