Must Believe

The key to unlocking Must Believe seems to be conditions and distance. On wet or muddy ground, it has won 2 of its 5 races — a 40% win rate that is genuinely striking, because most horses find soft ground a slog. At a mile and three to four furlongs, it has won 3 of 9 races, a rate of 1 in 3, which tells you this is a horse that wants real distance to get into its stride. Put those two things together on the right day and you have a formidable combination.

Nowhere has that combination paid off more than at Kempton Park. Must Believe has won 2 of its 5 races there — winning 2 in 5 at a single track is the kind of record that makes it the one to beat every time it shows up. Its first win came at Kempton in September 2025, and it returned to win there again as recently as five weeks ago on 4 May 2026. That is not a coincidence — some horses simply take to a particular track, whether it is the shape of the bends, the surface, or something harder to explain. Kempton clearly suits this one.

Trained by George Baker at Epsom Downs in Surrey, Must Believe competes mostly at Class 5 level — the bread-and-butter tier of British racing — where it has won 2 of 16 races. Baker's yard has sent out 14 winners already this season, so this is an active, in-form operation. With Must Believe having raced just yesterday and clearly in good nick, there is every reason to think the wins are not done yet.