Mr Lincoln

That one win came at Cork back in April 2023, now over three years ago, and he has not been able to repeat it in the six races since. His recent form makes for tough reading — finishing 8th, 2nd, 7th, 7th, 8th, and 5th in his last six outings. The second place shows the ability is still there on a good day, but the pattern of disappointing finishes either side of it is hard to ignore.

Where Mr Lincoln does look most interesting is over a mile and one or two furlongs. At that trip he has won 1 from 4 races — a 25% win rate, or one in every four attempts — which is a dramatically better record than he shows anywhere else. For a horse that wins only rarely overall, that kind of concentration of success at a specific distance is worth paying attention to.

Gary Carroll rides him most often, and together they have that one win from seven races, a rate of roughly 1 in 7. It is a modest return, but Carroll clearly knows this horse well, and familiarity between jockey and horse can matter more than raw numbers suggest. The yard behind him, trained by Iain Jardine out of Carrutherstown, has been in good form this season with 57 winners sent out — so the training operation is clearly functioning well, even if Mr Lincoln himself has been hard to win with.

He was last seen racing just one day ago, so he is very much an active runner right now. At his best level — Class 4 — he has actually not won at all from three attempts, which is a strange quirk for a horse whose only career victory came at that kind of level. Mr Lincoln is, in truth, a horse you follow with patience rather than expectation. But get him over the right distance on the right day, and there is clearly something in there.