The distance angle is genuinely interesting. Over a mile and three to a mile and four furlongs, Mr Colonel has won one from three races — that's a win rate of around 33%, or roughly one in every three attempts at those trips. For a horse with an overall win rate of just 14% (one win in every seven races), the jump in performance at that distance is significant. It suggests he's a horse who needs time and space to get into his rhythm — shorter races simply don't bring out the best in him.
His recent form figures read 4-9-3-1-5-2 from most recent to oldest, and while the nine is an eyebrow-raiser, the broader picture is more encouraging than that single result implies. Either side of it, he's finishing in the top five, and he was second on his penultimate run. He raced just yesterday, so he's bang in form and clearly being kept busy by his trainers Richard and Peter Fahey, who operate out of Musley Bank in North Yorkshire. The Fahey yard has already sent out 23 winners this season, which marks them out as a stable operating with real momentum right now — horses leaving that yard are trained to be competitive.
The fact that Mr Colonel's only win came three months ago and hasn't been added to since is the obvious question mark. But at three, horses develop throughout the season, and his record at the right distance suggests the talent is there. The next time he lines up over a mile and three or four furlongs, he'll be worth a second look.
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Park Sharp |
2 | 1 second, 1 other | 17 Jul | 0% |
| Redcar Galloping |
1 | 1 win | 20 Apr | 100% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 11 Oct | 0% |
| Chester Tight |
1 | 1 third | 6 May | 0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 17 Jun | 0% |
| Ayr Galloping |
1 | 1 second | 18 Sep | 0% |