Moon Over Miami

The numbers reveal where Moon Over Miami truly belongs. On normal ground, he wins half his races (2 from 4), a telling statistic that rules out very wet or very firm conditions. More strikingly, over the 1m3f to 1m4f distances—roughly two miles—he has won two of three races, a win rate of 67 per cent. This is where his class shows itself. At the top end of races, he's won 1 of 3, which suggests he has the talent to mix it with the best but needs everything else to fall into place: the right distance, the right ground, the right setup.

Jockey Hector Crouch, who has ridden him eight times, has partnered him to two of those three wins, a 25 per cent win rate together that hints at a growing understanding. Ralph Beckett's Kimpton yard, which has sent out 107 winners this season, has long-term ambitions for Moon Over Miami that extend beyond mid-range races. The trainer has spoken openly about seeing him as a horse for the Queen Alexandra—one of Britain's most testing and longest races—believing he will stay exceptionally well and might yet fulfil his potential at the very top of the staying division. After 17 months without a win and years of complications, his recent Newbury success suggests those plans may finally be coming together.