Montezin

The pattern in Montezin's recent form is encouraging. In the last six races it has finished first, fifth, eighth, fourth, fourth and thirteenth — a record that shows it is competitive more often than not, with three fourth-place finishes and a fifth suggesting the horse regularly runs into strong fields but stays in the fight. The first win, back in November at Newcastle, started things off, and that August success at Haydock shows Montezin can win again at a higher level, because Haydock is a more prestigious track than most of the horse's other races.

Cam Hardie, the jockey who rides Montezin most often, has partnered the horse five times and won once — a 20% win rate that mirrors the horse's overall win rate of roughly 1 in 5 races. Trainer Antony Brittain, based at Warthill in North Yorkshire, has a yard in good form this season with 23 winners sent out, which suggests the stable knows how to prepare horses to win. What stands out is that when Montezin steps into Class 5 races — the level at which it most often competes — it wins one in every three attempts. That is a strong record at that grade and the real indicator of where this horse belongs. Montezin is not a headline act, but it is a consistent performer in its lane, and the fact that it won this week after a middling stretch of form shows it has the resilience to bounce back.