Miss Jocund

The real story lies in her last six outings. After a ninth-place finish, Miss Jocund has placed in three of her last four races, including back-to-back thirds and a fifth that came just 1 day ago. She is still competing and still getting into the placings. That consistency—finding the frame regularly without yet breaking through—is the hallmark of a horse improving gradually toward that first win. Many horses never get placed at all; the fact that she has four places from six races shows she belongs in the races she is running in.

Henry De Bromhead, her trainer, runs one of Ireland's most prolific yards. Knockeen has sent out 110 winners this season, which tells you this is a serious operation. A trainer of that calibre would not be running Miss Jocund unless there was genuine belief she could improve. The mare's recent form—three placings in her last four races—suggests that belief is being rewarded. She is running consistently, improving her form, and moving in the right direction. The breakthrough, statistically speaking, should be coming soon.