Midnight Our Fred

He is trained by J P Flavin out of Tramore in Co Waterford, a yard that has sent out 10 winners already this season — a trainer who clearly knows how to get a horse ready. His most regular partner in the saddle is Danny Mullins, who has ridden him in 11 races for that single win together. It is a partnership built on familiarity rather than fireworks, though Flavin clearly believes the horse still has a big day in him.

The ground matters here. On normal conditions, Midnight Our Fred has won 2 of his 6 races — that is a 33% win rate, or 1 in every 3, which is a dramatically better version of the same horse. Put him in wet or muddy conditions and that sharpness seems to disappear.

His last win came at Gowran Park in October 2024, and he has not reached the winner's enclosure in the six races since. But look at the recent form more carefully: two fourth-place finishes, a seventh, and a second just two runs back. He is competitive, he is in good shape — he raced just yesterday — and Flavin has been candid about where he thinks the horse can shine. The trainer has spoken warmly about his run in the Paddy Power Chase, describing a horse who jumped, travelled, and quickened beautifully, doing everything right except win. Several rivals from that race have since gone on to run well, which means the form around him has strengthened. The Kim Muir at Cheltenham has been mentioned as a potential target, with Flavin feeling the trip — around three and a quarter miles — suits him better than longer alternatives. It would be the kind of big occasion that demands exactly the sort of honest, uncomplaining effort Midnight Our Fred has spent a career delivering.