Lunario

The most recent form tells an interesting story. A couple of poor runs either side of back-to-back wins suggests Lunario can blow hot and cold, but when conditions click, the talent is obvious. Those two victories came in the summer of 2024 and culminated in a win at Sandown Park in August — a proper venue, not just any track — before things went quiet. Lunario hasn't raced in roughly five months, so this return from a break will tell us whether that Sandown win was the high point or just a staging post.

Ground conditions matter a great deal here. On dry or normal ground, Lunario wins 3 from 9 and 2 from 6 respectively — a 33% win rate in both cases. That's a horse that wins roughly 1 in every 3 races when the surface suits, which is a genuinely strong number at this level. Put Lunario on wet or muddy ground and the picture changes entirely; clearly a horse that wants the ground fast beneath its feet.

The partnership with jockey Jack Dace is worth noting — 2 wins from 10 races together, a 20% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 5 times they've teamed up. That's a solid combination, and the fact that Jack shares a surname with trainer Luke Dace suggests this is very much a family operation. Luke Dace's yard has sent out 6 winners already this season, so the string is in decent nick heading into Lunario's return. Lunario typically races at Class 4 level — the fourth tier of British racing, solid mid-level competition — and has won 2 of 9 at that grade. Not a dominant force, but a horse that knows how to get its head in front when everything lines up.