Longlai

The most telling number is what happens when the ground gets wet and heavy. On soft or muddy ground, Longlai has won 2 of 7 races — that's a win rate of around 29%, or roughly 1 in every 3.5 races. Compare that to its overall record and you can see the difference clearly. This is a horse that transforms in conditions most others are silently dreading. Similarly, Kempton Park has been a happy hunting ground, with 2 wins from 6 races there — one of which was the first career win back in April 2023. Finding a track where a horse consistently performs is exactly the kind of edge that separates a well-placed winner from a frustrating also-ran.

Trained by George Baker at Epsom Downs in Surrey, Longlai sits at the heart of a yard that has sent out 14 winners already this season, so the team clearly knows how to get horses ready to win. Baker's operation is in decent form, and Longlai at its best — soft ground, right track — is not the kind of horse you want to dismiss lightly. Most of its wins have come at Class 4 level, where it has won 2 from 9 races, a solid 22% win rate at that grade.

The honest part of the story is that Longlai has not won since Wolverhampton in August 2024, now nearly two years ago, and the last six runs read 4-12-7-11-15-3 — mostly disappointing, with a brief flash of promise when finishing third. Raced as recently as yesterday, this horse is clearly still being aimed at races and the team has not given up. The question is simply whether the right combination of track, ground, and opportunity comes together again. When it has in the past, Longlai has delivered. It may only take one wet afternoon at Kempton to remind everyone why.