Lone Star

The horse showed promise early in its career, breaking through at Newcastle on Boxing Day 2022, then securing a valuable Class 2 victory at Musselburgh in March 2023. Those wins hint at a horse capable of mixing with decent company, though recent form has been tougher. Lone Star has not found the winner's enclosure in its last six races — a dry spell that stretches back to June 2025, now 16 months ago. The most recent outings show a pattern of minor placings: fourth, sixth, fourth again, seventh, third, fourth. These are the returns of a horse that is trying but not quite clicking.

What makes Lone Star interesting is its very clear preference for slightly soft or muddy ground. On those conditions, the horse wins roughly 1 in every 3 races — a 31% win rate from 13 attempts, a dramatic jump from its overall 12%. Similarly, Newcastle has been a happy hunting ground, with 2 wins from just 4 races there. This is the kind of information that matters: a horse that dominates its preferred track and thrives in wet conditions is not the same horse when the ground firms up or it races elsewhere. Joe Williamson has been its regular rider, recording 6 wins from 33 races together — again, an 18% win rate that outpaces the horse's average. Whether Lone Star can end its drought on a soft track with Williamson back in the saddle remains to be seen.