Liosa

The gelding's form has been mixed recently. After winning at Ripon two months ago, he has since run fifth, third, first, sixth, fourth, and tenth in his last six outings, which tells the story of a performer who can strike on his day but can easily disappoint. That said, his narrow defeat just three runs ago suggests he remains in the right ballpark for a return to the winner's enclosure.

Where Liosa genuinely excels is on soft, wet, or muddy ground. On such surfaces, he has won twice from five races—a 40% win rate that stands out sharply against his overall record. This is the kind of marked preference that a trainer and jockey will exploit relentlessly, and it points to a horse whose action and build suit testing conditions. He also has form at Kempton Park, where he has won twice from five attempts, making him a horse worth backing when the track plays to his strengths and the ground is heavy. Hector Crouch, his most regular partner, has ridden him to two victories from seven races together—a 29% win rate that suggests genuine understanding between horse and rider. When all three factors align—Crouch in the saddle, Liosa on slow ground at Kempton—he becomes noticeably harder to beat.