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Likeness

Likeness broke through at Epsom Downs three weeks ago in a race perfectly suited to her strengths, delivering a first career win after nine previous attempts. The 3-year-old has since been racing regularly — she was out just a day ago — but has found life tougher in the races that followed, posting two placings and a pair of mid-field finishes in her last four outings. The horse has won only 1 of her 10 races overall, though the real story lies in where she wins and where she struggles.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
3 years old
Sex
Filly
Colour
Bay
Father
Blue Point
Mother
Tayybah
Owner
Highclere Thoroughbred Sycamore
Official rating
75

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
11
Career races
1
Wins
9.1%
Win rate
avg ~10%
72.7%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
10 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The magic distance for Likeness is between a mile and a furlong and a mile and two furlongs, the stretch of ground where she has won 1 from 5 races — a 20% win rate that stands out sharply against her record elsewhere. Trainer Jack Channon, who runs a prolific yard at West Ilsley that has already sent out 46 winners this season, clearly understands what this horse needs. The problem is that Likeness has been entered in Class 4 races — the kind where the field is competitive and the margins are small — and has not won any of those four attempts. Her single victory came on softer ground and in a less demanding race, suggesting she may need the right conditions and level of opposition to show her best. With recent form that reads 3-1-2-5-4-2, there are moments of promise but also the nagging sense that Likeness has not quite found her feet at the higher level. Still racing regularly and still only three, she remains a horse with time to figure out exactly where she belongs.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Well suited by 1m1f – 1m2f distances: 17% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 7 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Good (a little give)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M1F – 1M2F
Loves
5F – 6½F
Unknown
7F – 1M
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
8 Oct
2nd
Southwell
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 9 runners
27 Sep
3rd
Epsom Downs
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 9 runners
10 Sep
🏆 Won
Epsom Downs
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
21 Aug
2nd
Ffos Las
7f – 1m · Good · 3 runners
5 Apr
5th
Southwell
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 6 runners
12 Mar
4th
chelmsford
7f – 1m · Standard · 10 runners
6 Nov
2nd
Newcastle
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 4 runners
4 Oct
2nd
Newcastle
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 5 runners
2 Sep
6th
Wolverhampton
7f – 1m · Standard · 10 runners
15 Aug
3rd
Newbury
5f – 6½f · Good · 10 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
0%
Win rate
0/4
Wins / rides
Jack Callan(5)
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Epsom Downs
Undulating
2 1 win, 1 third 27 Sep 50%
Newcastle
Galloping
2 2 seconds 6 Nov 0%
Southwell
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 8 Oct 0%
Ffos Las
Galloping
1 1 second 21 Aug 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
1 1 third 9 Jul 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
1 1 other 2 Sep 0%
chelmsford 1 1 other 12 Mar 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 third 15 Aug 0%