Lariat

The numbers tell a bleak story. Lariat wins roughly once in every 50 races, or about 2 percent of the time. Over its last six runs, the horse has not troubled the front places once, finishing eighth, second, seventh, ninth, and eighth again — a sequence that suggests age and perhaps worn-down racing legs. The horse runs best at distances between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, yet even in those preferred trips it has won just 1 from 29 races, a win rate of 3 percent. Adam Caffrey, who has ridden Lariat 12 times, has never crossed the line first aboard the horse.

What keeps a horse in work at ten years old with such a record is endurance and consistency in the placings. Lariat is not entirely hopeless — it finishes in the frame regularly enough, turning up in the placings on third of its career runs. It raced as recently as yesterday, which means the horse still has the yard willing to put it through its paces. For most horses, a winning win rate of 1 in 50 races would be the end of the story. For Lariat, it has meant a long career of near-misses and the occasional trip to the winner's enclosure so distant now that it belongs to a different era of racing altogether.