Lady Kara

Her recent form is mixed. In her last six races, she has finished second twice and fourth twice, with one win tucked in there, but nothing dramatic. She raced just yesterday, so she is actively campaigned and appears sound. The puzzle is her partnership with Luke Scott, her most frequent jockey—they have combined seven times without a win, which raises the question of whether a change of rider might help unlock another Newton Abbot victory.

Lady Kara is a horse that knows how to win—she has proved that twice—but she is also a horse with clear limits. She thrives at a specific track and has struggled in higher-class company, which tells you something about where her ceiling sits in racing. For the yard, the strategy seems obvious: keep her at Newton Abbot, where the odds stack heavily in her favour.