La Botte

The distance picture is probably the most interesting thing about La Botte's record. At 7 furlongs to a mile, the horse has won 1 from 3 races — that's a 33% win rate, or roughly 1 in 3, which is a dramatically better return than the career average. That kind of gap between overall record and performance at a specific trip is a useful clue. It suggests La Botte has a sweet spot, and races outside that range may simply be asking the wrong question.

Recent form makes for tougher reading. The last six results read 8-7-14-4-2-4 — that 14th-place finish stands out as a rough day, and the wins have dried up entirely over that stretch. It's now 14 months since the Newcastle victory, which is a long time to be searching for a repeat. The most encouraging sign in the recent sequence is the second place, which shows the talent hasn't vanished — it's just proving hard to convert into a win.

La Botte is trained by Harry Eustace, whose yard is based in Newmarket, one of the historic homes of British racing. Eustace's team has sent out 24 winners already this season, which tells you this is an operation that knows how to get horses ready to win. A horse with La Botte's profile — capable but inconsistent — is exactly the sort that a well-organised yard will be trying to place carefully, finding the right race at the right distance. With a run just yesterday, La Botte is clearly fit and active, and if the team can get the conditions right, that second win may not be as far away as the recent sequence suggests.