Karia Des Blaises

The numbers are modest on the surface — 1 win from 12 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 12 — but the recent form paints a more encouraging picture. Five of her last six runs have produced a win or a place finish, which means she has been consistently competitive even when the result has not gone her way. That kind of reliability is not nothing. It suggests a horse that shows up and tries, even if the breakthrough took time coming.

What changes the story entirely is who trains her. Willie Mullins, based in Co Carlow, is the dominant force in jump racing, and this season his yard has sent out 237 winners — a figure that is almost difficult to take seriously when you hear it out loud. That is not a good season; that is a historically remarkable one. A six-year-old sitting on a single career win in a stable of that firepower might not sound like the headline act, but Mullins has a well-earned reputation for knowing exactly when a horse is ready, and the fact that Karia Des Blaises is still in training and still running suggests the team see more to come. She has had a short break of 38 days since that Thurles win, which is a sensible freshener rather than anything to worry about, and she returns with a bit of momentum behind her for the first time in her career.