Kainsbourg

What's encouraging is how he's raced lately. In his last six outings, he has finished in the first four on four occasions — including a third-place finish most recently, just a day ago — which suggests a horse hitting better form after a difficult stretch. Trainer Gordon Elliott, who has sent out 210 winners from Longwood this season, indicated in late October that Kainsbourg has genuinely turned a corner. Elliott suggested a nice race might come his way in spring, the kind of casual confidence that trainers do not usually voice about horses stuck at two wins from twelve. The puzzling element is his record with Mark Walsh, his most frequent jockey: the pair have managed nothing from five attempts together, a stark contrast to what he has achieved with other riders. That partnership may be worth monitoring if it continues.

Kainsbourg will almost certainly need soft or muddy ground to win again — his two victories have come exclusively on that surface — and he will need to find a race suited to his current level. But the recent form and the trainer's optimism suggest that the next thirteen months might be kinder to him than the last.