John La Bear

The distance point is worth dwelling on. In four races over that mile-and-a-bit trip, he has won once — that's a 25% win rate, or 1 in every 4 races at his preferred distance. For a young horse still finding his feet, that's a genuinely encouraging ratio. The problem is that when the yard have tried him over shorter or longer trips, the results have been less impressive, and his recent form — finishing 14th and 13th in back-to-back races before his Dundalk breakthrough — shows how badly things can go when the conditions aren't right.

He's trained by Ross O'Sullivan out of Kilcullen in County Kildare, and the yard is in strong form this season, having sent out 40 winners. That kind of output matters because it means John La Bear is being prepared by a team that knows how to get horses ready to run their best. At three years old, he's at the stage where a horse typically starts to mature and strengthen, which is one reason why that December win — now seven months ago — shouldn't be written off as a one-off.

The most recent form figures tell a story of a horse who struggled badly, then found his level and won, then placed, then finished seventh most recently. The trajectory isn't a clean upward curve, but the core fact remains: when he gets his trip and his track, John La Bear wins a quarter of his races. For a horse still building his career, that's a foundation worth watching.