Jasmine Affanalis

The interesting part is her profile at the mile-and-a-quarter to mile-and-a-half range. Over those distances, she has won 2 of her 11 races—roughly one win every five or six attempts—which is nearly twice her overall rate. That's a genuine sweet spot, and trainer David Marnane, who runs a competitive yard out of Bansha in County Tipperary with 21 winners this season, will know to target her at the right trip. Her last six races show the pattern of a horse trying hard but finding little: seventh, then 15th, then second, then 13th and 11th. That second-place finish came between two difficult runs, which hints she's capable of placing regularly once she settles into her rhythm.

Luke McAteer has partnered her in eight races without a win, which is worth noting—sometimes a change of jockey can spark improvement. With a win this week at Killarney, Jasmine Affanalis is a horse moving in the right direction, even if the numbers remain modest. She's the type that belongs in a race rather than the betting forecast, but for followers of Irish racing, she's one to keep an eye on when the ground suits and the trip is right.