Isle of Fernandez

Kevin Ryan's Hambleton yard has been prolific this season with 45 winners, so Isle Of Fernandez is in the hands of someone who knows how to get horses winning. The key insight into this runner is distance. Over the five-furlong to six-and-a-half-furlong range, the horse wins roughly 1 in every 3 races — a win rate that stands out against the overall record of just 1 win from 8 attempts. That's the sweet spot. Stretch it beyond that and the form falls away; keep it sharp and short, and there is enough there to suggest this is a horse capable of competing.

A year between wins is a long spell for any racehorse, and it raises the question of whether Isle Of Fernandez can rediscover the form that led to victory at Carlisle. The recent run that brought a third place shows there is still some fight in the tank, but consistency is the real problem. This is a horse that places regularly enough — three places alongside that single win — which suggests it is in the right races at the right level, yet cannot quite string together the performances needed to win again. At three years old there is still time, and there is still a trainer capable of getting the best out of it. But right now, Isle Of Fernandez is a runner knocking on the door rather than kicking it down.