If Not For Dylan

The yard behind him — Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore's operation up in Milnathort — has had 49 winners already this season, so this is no quiet backwater stable. They clearly know what they're doing with If Not For Dylan, and the trainer has spoken warmly about him as a jumper who is ideally suited to the longer veterans' chases — the staying tests that suit an experienced, tough old horse rather than a flashy young one.

What makes him genuinely interesting is how well the conditions have to suit him. On wet or muddy ground, he has won 3 of 9 races — that's a 33% win rate, which for a horse at his level is seriously good. Compare that to his overall record of winning roughly 1 in every 6 races and you start to see the pattern: when the heavens open, If Not For Dylan becomes a different proposition. His trainer admitted as much after his recent run at Aintree, noting the rain actually arrived at the wrong time rather than the right one — a reminder that even with a horse who loves soft ground, timing matters.

Perth is where he has built his reputation as a course specialist, winning 2 of his 6 races there — a track that suits his style and presumably where his supporters follow him most hopefully. His regular jockey Alan Doyle has partnered him to 2 wins from 9 rides together, winning at roughly 1 in every 4.5 races — a noticeably better ratio than his overall record suggests.

His last win came at Newcastle in January 2025, sixteen months ago now, and he hasn't troubled the judge in his last six runs. But he placed third twice in that sequence and fifth once, so the engine is still running. At eleven, with wet ground and the right track, If Not For Dylan remains worth watching.