Hoe Joly Smoke

The pattern emerging from his recent form tells a story of a horse who runs consistently without always delivering the win. His last six races read 2-1-2-6-6-5 — two runner-up finishes, a win, another close call, then two mid-field efforts followed by a fifth. That win slot in the middle was last September at Bangor, and before that he was placed regularly on his reappearance this season. What Skelton has worked out is that Hoe Joly Smoke needs the right ground and the right distance. On normal, standard conditions, he has won twice from five races — a 40 percent win rate that jumps out from his overall 17 percent record. When the ground is softer or harder than ideal, he struggles.

Skelton believes the horse's recent Cheltenham run revealed something crucial: dropping in distance could unlock another win. Hoe Joly Smoke travelled beautifully into that race but simply did not stay the trip, and the trainer is confident that cutting back to shorter distances will bring dividends. His regular partner, jockey Harry Skelton, rode him to victory at Sandown and immediately saw promise in a bigger prize for next season. The trainer has cautioned against chasing the Scottish National at Ayr, preferring instead to return to the track where Hoe Joly Smoke has already proved he belongs — a philosophy that has paid off at least twice already.