Have Secret

The real story lies in where this horse succeeds and where it struggles. On normal ground it becomes noticeably better, winning 4 of 12 races (33%) — three times the overall rate. Put it on fast, dry ground or soft, muddy conditions and the engine simply doesn't fire the same way. Over the 7-furlong to 1-mile trip it also sharpens up, winning 1 of 3 races (33%). But the moment the yard steps it up to the genuinely top races — Class 2 — it has won zero of 18 attempts. This is the wall that defines Have Secret's career: solid, reliable, profitable perhaps, but not equipped for the brightest lights.

Its recent form tells a familiar story. Last raced just a day ago and finished fifth; before that, a second place, then victories spaced out with moderate finishes. The last win came at Pontefract on 21 April, four months back — a decent gap for a horse that races regularly. Oisin Orr has been the usual pilot, but even with an experienced rider it has managed only 1 win from 12 races together (8%), fractionally below its overall rate. Richard & Peter Fahey's Musley Bank yard knows what this horse is and where to run it — and that pragmatism is probably why it keeps winning.