Havana Prince

The clearest pattern is his love of normal ground conditions. When the going is standard, Havana Prince has won 5 of his last 13 races—a 38% win rate that jumps out from the page. Shift him onto fast, dry ground or wet, muddy ground, and that eye-catching form crumbles. He's also found his ideal distance at around a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs, winning 3 of 8 races (38%) over that trip. The problem is what happens when the yard steps him up in class. In nine attempts at the highest level he competes in, he has not won once—a blank record that suggests he belongs at a lower tier.

Newcastle is clearly a happy hunting ground. With two wins from six races at the track, Havana Prince has figured out this circuit better than most, and his last victory came there on 27 March, five months ago. Teaming him with jockey David Nolan has proven particularly effective; together they have won 4 of 13 races, a 31% win rate that significantly outperforms his overall record. That's the kind of partnership worth keeping intact. Recent form is patchy—a win three runs ago, but bookended by a string of unplaced efforts—though he was last seen racing just a day ago, so the yard clearly keeps him active and ready to run.