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Half A Chance

Seven years old and still searching for that elusive second win, Half A Chance is a horse that has made a career out of nearly getting there. One win from 20 races — that's a 5% win rate, or roughly one in every twenty attempts — tells you this isn't a horse that makes a habit of reaching the winner's enclosure. But eight places from those same 20 races suggest something else entirely: a horse that shows up, competes, and regularly makes its presence felt without quite closing the deal.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Beat Hollow
Mother
Shivermetimber
Owner
Tlicn Syndicate
Rating
112

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
20
Career races
1
Wins
5%
Win rate
avg ~10%
40%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

That one career win came at Limerick on 30 May 2024, and it remains the sole entry on the honours board. Two years have now passed since that day, which gives you a sense of just how stubborn the drought has become. The recent form figures — two third-place finishes bookending a fourth, a tenth, and another fourth — paint a picture of a horse that is rarely disgraced but hasn't found the extra gear needed to get back in front. A tenth-place finish stands out as the low point, but the returns either side of it show the horse bouncing back, which is something.

Paddy Hanlon has been the regular partner, riding Half A Chance in 13 of its 20 races and sharing that single win at Limerick. Together they've won just 1 in 13, which is a modest 8% win rate, though the consistency of the partnership at least suggests the team know each other well. The trainer is John Joseph Hanlon, based in Bagenalstown, Co Carlow — a yard that has sent out 11 winners already this season, so the operation is clearly capable of producing results. Whether Half A Chance can add to that tally is the open question. With a race just yesterday and the horse still active, the answer may not be far away — though after 24 months without a win, patience is very much part of the deal with this one.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_yielding ground: 1 wins from 7 starts (14%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to yielding (mild give)
Loves
Good to firm (drying out)
Unknown
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
Long Distance (2M+)
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, tight
Avoids
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
30 May
3rd
Stratford-on-Avon
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Firm · 5 runners
23 May
DNF
Cartmel
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 3 runners
7 May
4th
Wexford
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 13 runners
5 Apr
10th
Plumpton
1m6f – 2m · Good · 14 runners
7 Feb
4th
Naas
1m6f – 2m · Soft_To_Heavy · 12 runners
20 Dec
3rd
Thurles
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding · 12 runners
27 Nov
5th
Taunton
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
1 Nov
2nd
Wetherby
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 10 runners
5 Oct
3rd
Tipperary
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 8 runners
26 Sep
2nd
Listowel
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 19 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Mr Paddy Hanlon Current Jockey
7.7%
Win rate
1/13
Won / Rode
Miss M O'Sullivan
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Limerick
Galloping
3 1 win, 1 second, 1 other 29 May 33.3%
Galway
Tight
2 2 other 3 Aug 0%
Wexford
Sharp
2 2 other 7 May 0%
Down Royal
Galloping
1 1 other 21 Jan 0%
Thurles
Undulating
1 1 third 20 Dec 0%
Stratford-on-Avon
Sharp
1 1 third 30 May 0%
Punchestown
Galloping
1 1 other 3 May 0%
Downpatrick
Undulating
1 1 second 19 Sep 0%
Kilbeggan
Tight
1 1 other 24 Apr 0%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 second 1 Nov 0%
Naas
Galloping
1 1 other 7 Feb 0%
Cartmel
Tight
1 1 other 23 May 0%
Taunton
Undulating
1 1 other 27 Nov 0%
Tipperary
Galloping
1 1 third 5 Oct 0%
Listowel
Sharp
1 1 second 26 Sep 0%
Plumpton
Sharp
1 1 other 5 Apr 0%