Gin Tonic

The overall record reads one win and three places from four races, a 25% win rate — that's 1 in every 4 races converted into a victory, which is a solid return at this stage. More telling is the recent form: a second place followed by that win, suggesting a horse that had found its rhythm and was improving at just the right time. Nolan's yard has sent out 23 winners this season, so there's plenty of know-how behind this one, and a trainer operating at that volume tends to know when a horse is ready.

With just four races on the clock, Gin Tonic is still very much a work in progress — there's a lot we don't yet know about how high the ceiling might be. But a horse that has placed in three of its four outings and hasn't yet finished out of the money is doing something right. Having raced as recently as yesterday, this is a horse very much in the middle of its story.