Frontier Prince

Strip away the average numbers and a clearer picture emerges. Over distances of two miles or more, Frontier Prince wins roughly 4 of every 10 races (3 wins from 7 attempts). Put him on slightly soft ground, and that improves further to 2 wins from 5 races. Pair both conditions together and you have a horse that knows exactly what he wants. His sole February victory at Kempton Park, his most recent success at Perth, and his overall pattern suggest he is a long-distance lover who needs a bit of give in the ground to show his best. At Class 4 level — middle-ranking races — he has won two of five starts, which indicates he is reliably capable at that grade.

His recent form reads 1-12-4-–-3-5 across his last six runs, which shows promise punctuated by disappointment. The win came most recently, but the runs either side included a fourth and third, suggesting consistency without dominance. Jonathan Burke has been his regular partner, winning 2 of 11 races together, though Burke's 18 per cent win rate with him is fractionally below the horse's overall average. Fergal O'Brien, training from Withington in Gloucestershire, has built a prolific yard this season with ninety winners already sent out.

For the yard to get the best from Frontier Prince, the formula is simple: long races on softening ground at tracks that suit his running style. He is an honest, selective racer rather than a star, but one that delivers when the elements align.