Frescobaldi

The overall numbers are modest — a 12% win rate means roughly 1 win from every 8 or 9 races — but Frescobaldi has been competitive far more often than that single win suggests. Four placed finishes from those eight races means it has finished in the top three or four more often than not, and at a Class 2 level, being placed is no small thing. This is a horse that runs against good rivals and keeps showing up. The recent form string does raise an eyebrow, though — that York win was followed by five races without a victory, and the most recent figures show some distance behind the leaders. Whether that reflects a horse still finding its peak, or one that caught lightning in a bottle at York, is the interesting question.

Where Frescobaldi does show a clear preference is at distances between seven furlongs and a mile. In five races at that range, it has won once — the York race — which works out at 20%, or roughly 1 in every 5 tries. That is a meaningfully better rate than its overall record, and it suggests the team at Daniel James Murphy's yard in Co Kildare know exactly where this horse is most likely to fire. Murphy's operation has sent out 14 winners this season, so it is a yard in form, and with a horse that has already proved it can win at a top British venue, the ambition is clearly there.

Frescobaldi raced just one day ago, which means it is in the thick of its campaign right now. Still only three, still building a record, and with a notable result already banked — there is plenty of story left to write.