Femme Magnifique

Her winning percentage jumps to 40 percent — two wins from five races — when the ground turns soft or wet, which is the real story here. Femme Magnifique is a horse that clearly thrives when conditions deteriorate, and with winter approaching in Ireland, that should work in her favour. She also shows a preference for longer distances between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, winning two of five at that trip. The concern is her partnership with Cian Quirke, who has ridden her seven times without a win, suggesting either that the pairing lacks the right chemistry or that Quirke has been aboard during her tougher assignments.

Trained by David Harry Kelly at Rathvin in County Tipperary, Femme Magnifique races in a yard sending out 13 winners this season — a respectable output that hints at decent horsemanship and a team with momentum. At eight, she is entering the twilight of a jumping career but shows no sign of decline. The next few months, when rain falls regularly and the ground gets heavy, should suit her perfectly. A wet afternoon in the west of Ireland could be exactly what this mare needs.