Fans Favourite

The standout fact is what happens when the ground turns wet or muddy. Put Fans Favourite on a soft track and it wins three times out of every four races, which is exceptional form. On normal or fast ground, it struggles badly. That's the kind of preference that trainers live by. Hugo Palmer, who trains Fans Favourite at his yard in Malpas, Cheshire, clearly understands this: the horse's last win came three weeks ago at Beverley on August 29, and before that it won on June 6 at Lingfield Park — both occasions when the ground was testing. You can bet Palmer is watching the weather forecast like a hawk during wet spells.

Distance matters too. Over 1 mile 1 furlong to 1 mile 2 furlongs, Fans Favourite wins about 2 races in every 5 it runs — a 40 per cent win rate that's well above its 25 per cent overall average. That's the sweet spot. Beyond those distances or shorter, the horse finds things harder. Palmer's yard is in fine form this season with 67 winners to its name, which suggests the trainer has his finger on the pulse of form and conditions. With Fans Favourite racing just a day ago, it's an active horse still being targeted at the right opportunities. The real question for anyone watching is simple: when the forecast says rain and the race is over the right distance, Fans Favourite becomes genuinely interesting. Without both those conditions, it's back to struggling.