Fallacious Promise

The distance range of one mile one furlong to one mile two furlongs looks like the sweet spot. Over those trips, Fallacious Promise has won 1 from 4 races — that's 25%, which means roughly 1 in every 4 runs at this sort of distance ends in victory. That's a meaningful number, especially compared to the overall record, and it suggests the team have been learning where this horse belongs.

The recent form makes for interesting reading: the last six runs read 9-2-2-3-1-2 going backwards, which means after a rough outing the horse has been placed or better in five of the last six races, including that win. That's the kind of consistency that catches the eye. Trained by John Butler out of Newmarket — one of the great racing towns in Britain — the yard has sent out 39 winners this season alone, which tells you this isn't a small operation guessing its way through the calendar. Having raced just yesterday, Fallacious Promise is very much a horse in the thick of things right now.